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“中国泡沫”有日本阴影?

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JAPAN REVISITED? CHINA'S BUBBLE FLIES OWN COURSE
By Louise Lucas 
Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Few analysts, it seems, can resist the temptation to draw parallels between the Japanese bubble of the late 1980s and today's go-go Chinese markets.
把20世纪80年代末的日本泡沫与如今投机正酣的中国股市相提并论,是件时髦之事。似乎很少有分析师能抵御这种诱惑。

And no wonder. Valuations may still have a way to go in China (at 50 times forward earnings they are still comfortably below the 70-times multiple of Japan's bubble years) but there are plenty of other similarities.
这不足为奇。中国中国股市估值也许还有一段上升空间(目前50倍的预期市盈率,仍远低于日本泡沫年代70倍的市盈率)。但它们之间有不少相似之处。

Strong economic growth? Check. Loose monetary policy? Check. Exporting capital? Okay, so the stakes taken in recent weeks in US and South African banks don't quite rank alongside Japan's trophy deals of the 1980s, but they certainly pass muster.
强劲的经济增长?没错。宽松的货币政策?也没错。资本出口?对,最近几周入股美国和南非银行的交易,远不能与日本20世纪80年代引人注目的交易媲美。不过它们已经相当不错了。

The Shanghai market has more than doubled this year and China is now home to four of the world's 10 most valuable companies.
上海股市今年上涨已逾1倍,目前全球10家价值最高的公司中,中国占了4家。

Two decades ago, Japan ruled supreme. In 1988, according to Business Week rankings, Japan boasted eight of the world's 10 most valuable companies. NTT, the fixed-line provider, was worth just shy of $300bn - or about four times today's value.
20年前,日本占据统治地位。《商业周刊》(Business Week)的排行榜显示,1988年,日本自诩在全球10家最具价值公司中拥有8家。固话供应商NTT当时的市价略低于3000亿美元,约为目前市价的4倍。

Now, China boasts the most valuable telecoms carrier - China Mobile is worth more than $400bn - as well as the biggest bank, airline and insurer. (Some of the numbers merit caution, since non-traded shares of dual-listed stocks are based on the higher Chinese stock price, even though the Hong Kong float is sometimes bigger.)
如今,中国自诩拥有最有价值的电信运营商——中国移动(China Mobile),其价值超过4000亿美元。同时,中国也拥有全球最大的银行、航空公司和保险公司。(其中一些数字需谨慎对待。两地上市公司非流通股的价值是按照较高的内地股价计算的,尽管有时在香港的流通股规模更大。)

There are structural similarities too. Even though Japan, at its peak, dwarfed the US equities market, its free float was far skimpier. Crossshareholdings held by friendly stakeholders such as suppliers, clients and banks accounted for perhaps two-thirds of the market.
在结构上,两地也有相似之处。尽管处于巅峰时期的日本曾令美国股市汗颜,但其流通股的规模小得多。供应商、客户和银行等友好利益相关者的交叉持股,可能占市场的三分之二。

Likewise the galloping Chinese stock market - which, measured by Chinese stocks in Hong Kong as well as the domestic markets, trumps Japan in size - is largely off-limits. Two-thirds of the market is held by state entities and mainland investors have only limited access to shares listed on the Hong Kong Exchange.
同样,急速上涨的中国股市(以香港和内地交易的中国股票衡量,规模已超过日本),基本上已无法进入。市场上三分之二的股票由国有实体持有,而且内地投资者购买在香港交易所上市的股票时存在限制。

Peter Tasker at Dresdner Kleinwort runs through Hyman Minsky's seven-stage model for bubbles and finds both past and present markets pass with flying colours.
德利佳华(Dresdner Kleinwort)的彼得•塔斯克(Peter Tasker)在研究中借助了海曼•明斯基(Hyman Minsky)的泡沫七阶段模型。他发现,无论是过去的日本股市,还是现在的中国股市,其特征均与泡沫模型相符。

In China's case, the sea change in prevailing assumptions comes from its emergence as a world power. Euphoria met its high point in Japan in 1987, when investors paid Y1.2m a share for NTT - and more than doubled their money in a month. Two decades on, investors in China Shenhua Energy, a coal producer, did not even have to wait that long.
就中国而言,它作为世界大国的崛起,导致了投资者对中国市场看法的重大转变。1987年,日本股市的兴奋度达到高点,投资者以每股120万日元的价格购买NTT股票——1个月内股价上涨就超过一倍。20年后,煤炭开采商——中国神华 (China Shenhua Energy)的投资者甚至不用等那么长时间。

But colourful though the similarities are, there are important differences too.
尽管相似点很多,但两者也存在重要差异。

Andy Xie, a Shanghaibased economist, notes that the numbers are actually far more modest in China - particularly when you look at the wealth held by households.
驻上海的经济学家谢国忠(Andy Xie)认为,在中国这些数字实际上没那么大——特别是当你把中国家庭持有的财富考虑进去的时候。

He points out, for example, that while the total value of Chinese companies listed on the exchanges of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong equate to 146-167 per cent of gross domestic product, the actual free float is far smaller.
例如,他指出,虽然上海、深圳和香港上市的中国公司总价值相当于中国国内生产总值(GDP)的146%至167%,但实际的自由流通股则要少得多。

Stripping out shares that are not liquid and international tranches brings the ratio down to just 38 per cent.
若剔除掉那些没有流动性以及在国际上发行的股票,公司市值与GDP的比率仅为38%。

Meanwhile, China's low real interest rates are only one factor fuelling the stock market. Equally pertinent is the fact that capital controls preclude much investment in overseas assets: relative valuations are a lot less valid if you only have one home for your money.
与此同时,中国处于低位的实际利率只是刺激股市的一个因素。同样有关联的是这样一个事实:资本控制阻碍了对海外资产的大举投资:如果你只能将资金放在一个地方,那么相对估值的有效性就会低得多。

Will it all end the same way? That is the $64m (Y7.33bn, Rmb477m) question, but Mr Xie, for one, does not foresee a massive unravelling that hammers property prices and pushes the economy into years of recession.
那么,这一切都会以同样的方式结束吗?这是个谁也说不清的问题。有人并不认为中国会出现大规模崩盘,从而砸低房地产价格,导致中国经济陷入多年衰退。谢国忠就是其中一个。

Partly this reflects less borrowing and the fact so much of the wealth is freshly minted - and very little of it has been spliced and diced off to other parts of the financial system.
一定程度上,这反映出中国借贷规模较小以及众多财富刚刚打造出来——其中只极少一部分分流进入金融体系中的其它领域。

"Most people enjoy watching the price going up, but nothing happens in between," says Mr Xie. "It's like going to a casino. It's not like Wall Street, where they are pushing financial products and causing demand to rise more than it would (otherwise)."
谢国忠表示:“多数人乐于价格上涨,除了上涨还是上涨。这像是赌场,而不像华尔街。在华尔街,人们全力推广金融产品,让价格升至应有水平之上,形成市场需求。”

Bizarrely, another big difference would appear to be the number of Cassandras. A Google search suggests an almost unanimous euphoria existed in late 1980s Japan; in China, the doomsayers are out in force. Everyone from government officials to Alan Greenspan, former US Federal Reserve chairman, have warned that China is a bubble waiting to burst.
令人诧异的是,另一个重大差别似乎是唱衰者的数量。谷歌(Google)搜索显示,20世纪80年代末,日本几乎所有人都沉浸在快乐的陶醉中;而在中国,凶事预言者的数量却很庞大。从政府官员到美联储(Fed)前主席艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan),每个人都已发出警告:中国是个行将破裂的泡沫。

Whether or not the implosion is as dramatic as in Japan, it seems a fair bet the China equities bubble will pop. But it is worth noting, however, that some of the party poopers' comments may carry a whiff of sour grapes.
无论中国泡沫的破裂是否会像日本那样引起世人关注,认为中国股市泡沫将会破裂似乎是个合理的赌注。不过值得注意的是,一些扫兴者的言论也许是“酸葡萄”。

Warren Buffett, the investment guru, exited his holding in PetroChina at an estimated average selling price of HK$11.47-HK$13.89 between July and October.
投资巨擘沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在7月至10月期间,抛出了持有的中石油(PetroChina)股票。当时的平均售价估计为11.47港元至13.89港元。

This was up to HK$8.19 below yesterday's close.
中石油11月2日的收盘价,比7至10月巴菲特抛出的股票价格高出了8.19港元。

译者/梁鸥

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