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21世纪:相互依存全球化是疗方还是祸根?

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21st Century:  Is Interdependent Globalization a Cure or a Curse?

Global interdependence - the degree to which the quality of life within states is dependent on conditions in others states - lies at the heart of the external challenges states now face. As the range of global issues has expanded and the intergration of national economies has created a globalized market, interdependence in a borderless world has reduced states' autonomy by curtailing their control of their own fates.

全球的相互依存(即在某种程度上一国生活水平的提高依赖于其它国家的条件)是国家现在面临的外部挑战中的核心问题。在全球问题的范围已扩大、各国经济一体化已创造了一个全球化市场的情况下,这样一个无国界世界中的相互依存已经削弱了国家控制其事务的能力。由于对自身命运控制能力的下降,国家间相互的脆弱性也削弱了国家的自主权。

From one perspective, an awareness of the common destiny of all, alongside the declining ability of many sovereign states to cope with global problems through national means, may energize efforts to put aside interstate competition. Conflict, according to this reasoning, will recede, as humanity begins to better recognize how little protection national borders and oceans provide them against the multiple dangers arising from the global revolution in travel, communications, and trade. Consequently, states must cooperate, and therefore we should welcome the continued tightening of interstate linkage.

从一方面看,如果认识到所有国家的命运都是连在一起的,并认识到许多主权国家通过国家手段去处理全球性问题的能力正在下降,可能会促使我们放弃国家间的竞争。据此逻辑,冲突将会减少,因为人们开始认识到,在多种危险面前,国家的边界和海洋并不能为我们提供多少保护,这些危险来自全球在旅行、通讯和贸易方面的革命性变化。因此,国家之间一定要相互合作,而且我们也应该欢迎各国间这种日趋紧密的联系。

From another, more pessimistic perspective, interdependence will not lead to transnational collaboration. Regardless of how compelling the need or how rewarding the benefits, contact and mutual dependence will breed enmity, not amity. Intertwined economies will sour relations more often than sweeten them. Under conditions of fierce competition, scarcity, and resurgent nationalism, the temptation to seek isolation from foreign economic dependence by creating barriers to trade and other transactions may be irresistible. The temptation to achieve political benefits by military force will also continue. Thus the tightening web of global interdependence foretells danger as well as opportunity.

从(较悲观的)另一方面看,相互依赖并不会导致跨国合作。不管这种需求多么迫切,回报多么丰厚,相互接触和彼此依赖带来的不是友善,而是敌对。经济关系的彼此交织常常使国家间关系变糟而不是变好。在残酷竞争、资源稀缺和民族主义复兴的条件下,通过建立贸易壁垒和其它商业壁垒使本国经济从对外国经济的依赖中摆脱出来,这种诱惑力可能是难以抗拒的。通过军事力量来取得政治收益的吸引力也会继续存在。因此,日趋紧密的全球相互依存之网既预示着风险,也预示着机遇。

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